Dubai/Vienna, 14.12.2023: With just one day's delay, a consensus was reached on the final decisions of COP 28 in Dubai, bringing this year's conference to a close. 198 countries take part in the annual climate conference of the UNFCCC. This makes the COP the key venue for coordinating global climate protection efforts and, at the same time, a prime example of complex diplomacy and consensus-building. Two researchers from the Climate Change Centre Austria were on the ground and share their assessment.

Loss and Damage Fund – an early milestone at COP28

Unusually early for climate protection negotiations, an important decision was made surprisingly on the very first day in Dubai – the establishment of a Loss and Damage Fund. This significant move brought an early win to the negotiations and spared the sensitive issue of climate-related losses and damages from being caught up in tricky trade-offs during the final days of talks. Technical pre-negotiations for the fund for climate-related losses and damages have been under way for two years. These negotiations are characterised by their complexity and controversy, and had come close to collapsing in November, just before COP 28. The success of getting the fund established is the result of around 30 years of efforts by many communities, including the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). Sarah Louise Nash (political scientist at UWK) has been following these discussions for nearly ten years and underlines the significance of the decision: "The establishment of a fund is an important procedural step that finally takes seriously the concerns and demands of many affected countries. A framework is now in place, and it remains to be seen whether enough funding will flow to support and compensate people who are particularly affected by the consequences of climate change."

First Global Stocktake – a tough nut right to the end

The first Global Stocktake – that is, the first assessment of global greenhouse gas trends since the Paris Agreement in 2015 – painted an alarming picture: with a mean temperature increase of +3°C (by 2100), we are moving the Earth's climate away from a state that is optimal for human civilisation.

From a physical science perspective, it is therefore clear that a phase-out of fossil fuels is necessary in order to meet the Paris Agreement targets. However, this is not reflected in the final text of the Global Stocktake. Max Nutz (climatologist at GeoSphere Austria) comments: "Science serves as a foundation, but it no longer has a voice in the negotiations." This leads to a situation where, despite the limited room for manoeuvre, the scientific and political discussions remain far apart. "It's important to emphasise, though, that it takes enormous diplomatic effort and a great deal of work from lead negotiators to produce a common output when nearly 200 countries have such differing interests and positions," Nutz points out. Given the prevailing political circumstances, the outcome of the Global Stocktake is therefore quite an achievement. For the first time, a transition away from fossil fuels is enshrined in a closing statement, which also sets an important precedent for national climate protection policy in Austria. Implementation must ultimately happen at the local level. Currently, climate protection measures in Austria fall far short of what is needed to deliver the country's contribution to the targets set in 2015.

The climate conference beyond the political negotiations

With more than 90,000 participants, COP28 in Dubai was exceptionally large – fitting for the city. At the heart of the conference are the many political negotiations, but the annual UNFCCC conferences have also become an important venue for global collaboration in science and business. A particularly critical point is that fossil fuel interests and nuclear energy companies were strongly represented – with more than 2,000 lobbyists – especially within the Green Zone, outside the political negotiating rooms.

Dr. Sarah Louise Nash, University for Continuing Education Krems, sarah.nash@donau-uni.ac.at

Max Nutz MSc, GeoSphere Austria, max.nutz@geosphere.at