Within the framework of the Climate Change Centre Austria network, a consortium of Austrian climate research organisations is developing new scenarios for the future development of the climate in Austria.

These climate scenarios take into account different trajectories of future global greenhouse gas emissions as well as the current state of climate research and climate modelling. They provide highly detailed data as a basis for climate change adaptation for Austria's regions and municipalities, as well as for the specific requirements of large cities.

The new data will be available from 2026 at klimaszenarien.at and will replace the currently used Austrian Climate Scenarios 2015 (ÖKS15).

In recent years, climate scenarios have become an important basis for long-term planning and investment decisions in nearly every sector, such as energy and water supply, agriculture and forestry, tourism, construction, emergency services, as well as for municipalities, federal states, and the national government.

Future development of temperature, rainfall, snow, etc.

"Climate scenarios show how temperature, rainfall, snow and other parameters may develop over the coming decades," says Matthias Themeßl from the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG). "Different scenarios are calculated depending on future global greenhouse gas emissions. The range spans from meeting the Paris targets to an unchecked release of greenhouse gases. These differences have a massive impact on Austria's regional climate. Climate scenarios help with long-term strategic decisions and climate change adaptation — for example in protecting against natural hazards — but they also show what impact climate protection measures can have."

ÖKS15 — A milestone for Austria

In 2015, Austria published its first unified climate scenarios (ÖKS15). They were a milestone in Austrian climate impact research and climate change adaptation. The variety of national and regional studies from diverse sources and methods that had been used up to that point was replaced by a unified foundation based on the state of the art in research at the time. As the relevance of the ÖKS15 data grew within the climate change adaptation strategies of the federal government, the federal states, and regions and municipalities, the use of the data and applications steadily increased.
Since the publication of the ÖKS15 data, there have been significant developments in climate policy and new research findings, which are now feeding into the development of the new climate scenarios.

Cutting-edge research and practical implementation

"The latest research findings are feeding into the development of the new climate scenarios — for example, climate models that can resolve thunderstorms, or the explicit assessment of the robustness of the information provided in highly mountainous regions or in large cities," emphasises Angelika Wolf from the Climate Change Centre Austria. "A key part of our process is close engagement with users from the very beginning, so that the climate scenario data is optimally tailored to their needs and can be used effectively in practice. New EU-level regulations (the Taxonomy Regulation) mean our data and information will also become relevant for every larger company. This makes the application-oriented approach we're aiming for all the more important," Wolf adds. As a kick-off to the stakeholder process, an online information event for interested parties is planned for 13 January 2023.

Broad Austrian collaboration

The development of the new climate scenarios is being coordinated and driven forward by a consortium of climate impact research organisations, led by the Climate Change Centre Austria and the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics. The consortium also includes the Universities of Graz, Innsbruck and Vienna, the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna (BOKU), as well as Weatherpark GmbH and the Austrian Institute of Technology.
The development of the new climate scenarios runs from 2022 to 2026 and is currently funded through the participants' own resources as well as the Climate and Energy Fund. Further support from the federal government and the federal states is currently being negotiated.

Here you can find the Klimaszenarien.AT project website.

Info webinar: an online info webinar for stakeholders will take place on 13.01.2023 from 09:00–10:30. You can register here.