Climate change is leading to an increase in extreme weather events. Behind flood disasters such as those along the Ahr in summer 2021, last autumn in Lower Austria, or in Valencia, Spain, lie so-called cut-off lows: storms that often bring enormous amounts of rainfall. The Wegener Center at the University of Graz has now investigated for the first time how these storms could change with climate change. 

"We expect that persistent cut-off lows will occur earlier in the year north of the 40th parallel and in East Asia. Canada, Northern Europe, Siberia, and northern China in particular will need to brace for more frequent prolonged heavy rainfall in spring," says project leader Douglas Maraun. The study's findings have just been published in the scientific journal Communications Earth & Environment.

Meteorologists use the term cut-off low to describe a low-pressure system situated several kilometres above the ground that has detached itself from the polar front. Since it often stays in the same location for several days, it frequently causes prolonged heavy precipitation in that region. Despite their devastating consequences, there has so far been very little research into how such storms might change with climate change. Scientists from the Wegener Center at the University of Graz have now examined this question in detail for the first time, in collaboration with colleagues from the University of Reading, UK, and the Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Sciences in Bologna, Italy. 

Find out more at uni-graz.at