The European interconnected grid is one of the safest electricity networks in the world. However, several developments are increasing the risk of blackouts – including climate change, as climate researcher Helga Kromp-Kolb explains.
In numerical terms, Austria's security of supply stood at 99.99 per cent in 2015, for example. On average, an Austrian electricity customer was disconnected from the grid without prior notice for less than 30 minutes. But can this data be projected linearly into the future? Numerous experts are identifying a growing number of causes that could trigger a total grid failure without warning.
Rising consumption, the energy transition, and deliberate manipulation – such as terrorist attacks or cyber attacks – could push the electricity grid ever closer to the limits of its capacity. climate change also poses a serious threat, with extreme weather events, rising river water temperatures, and melting Alpine glaciers.
What's clear is that if a blackout were to occur – that is, a prolonged and widespread power outage – catastrophic consequences for the entire public would be expected. Climate researcher <link https: forschung.boku.ac.at fis>Helga Kromp-Kolb from the University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences in Vienna sees climate change in particular as something that could challenge our electricity supply in the future.
Do you consider the discussion about possible blackouts to be scaremongering, or a scenario that could very well become reality?
Helga Kromp-Kolb: Everything that relies on a network – roads, railways, or waterways – is extremely susceptible to disruption. When a fault occurs somewhere, it has consequences for a wide area. And with electricity, those consequences are particularly severe. Compared to other countries, Austria is in a good position, but the risk of grid failures is increasing – due to climate-related causes as well as technological ones. The consequences of a prolonged power outage are alarming. I therefore think it's necessary to engage with this issue, because only then can we actually do something about it. It's the same as with climate change. You can see it as scaremongering, but you can also see it as a warning that action is needed to prevent things from reaching that point.
Where are there interactions between climate change and security of supply?
Kromp-Kolb: There are a great many. The transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy hasn't been completed yet, and that remains a challenge, because estimates of how much renewable energy we'll have are also climate-dependent: how much water or wind will be available? Potentials are simply estimated based on current conditions. Then of course there's also the connection that climate change alters demand as well. That means heatwaves and cold spells require more electricity, because people use electricity for cooling and heating. And finally, there are extreme weather events, which can cause high-voltage lines to topple, a tree to fall on a line, or a lightning strike to occur.
What role do water availability and rising river temperatures play in the stability of the electricity supply?
Kromp-Kolb: Every thermal power plant depends on a temperature differential relative to the cooling medium. If the cooling medium is water, then a higher water temperature leads to lower efficiency. But there are also a whole host of other possible consequences – of a biological nature, for instance. Species that didn't previously exist there can settle around the outflows and potentially block the entire outflow.
In that case, cooling would be lost altogether. It's also worth bearing in mind that many of our rivers and bodies of water, at least in the Alpine region, are fed by glaciers. At present, heat periods still lead to higher water levels due to increased meltwater. But as glaciers retreat, that will change. During heat periods, there really won't be any more water coming through. The situation will then become even more acute.
For climate protection reasons, we want to move away from fossil-fuel electricity generation. Will an electricity supply based entirely on renewable energy sources work? Electricity production from wind and solar is known to be highly variable …
Kromp-Kolb: I do think we can manage without fossil fuels. But it has to be said that this will involve a certain shift in lifestyle. People will need to think about when they actually need to run the dishwasher – not just any time they feel like it. Or whether the fridge really needs to keep cooling continuously – perhaps it could be switched off in between? That means it all needs to be managed in a sensible way.
That's why we need to move away from our absolute dependence on electricity. Storage is also part of this. A great deal of work is being done on how to store renewable energy effectively. But we mustn't only talk about these technologies – we also need to talk about reducing demand. The one can't happen without the other. If we try to replace everything we currently consume in terms of electricity, that's the wrong approach. In a country like Austria, it's genuinely about using less electricity, less energy, and fewer resources.
Interview: Peppo Wagner
First published on: <link http: science.orf.at stories external-link-new-window external link in new>science.orf.at on 08.11.2017
