Abstract:
Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.

Link to the study:
Guy J. Abel, Michael Brottrager, Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Raya Muttarak. Climate, conflict and forced migration. Global Environmental Change, 2019; 54: 239 DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003

Press reports:

• <link https: derstandard.at sprengkraft-der-erderwaermung-wenn-der-klimawandel-zur-fluchtursache-wird external-link-new-window internal link in current>When climate change becomes a cause of displacement (Der Standard, 23.01.2019)
• <link https: derstandard.at klimawandel-ist-eine-der-ursachen-fuer-migrationsstroeme-aus-arabischen-laendern external-link-new-window internal link in current>Climate change is one of the causes of migration flows from Arab countries (Der Standard, 23.01.2019)
• <link https: www.wienerzeitung.at themen_channel wissen natur external-link-new-window internal link in current>Climate change bears partial responsibility for conflicts and waves of migration (Wiener Zeitung, 23.01.2019)