A recently published attribution study entitled "10 years of rapidly disentangling drivers of extreme weather disasters" shows that human-caused climate change has led to a worsening of extreme weather events over the past 20 years, resulting in over 570,000 deaths. The researchers used weather data and climate simulations to examine the link between climate disasters and the people who lost their lives as a result. Particularly striking is the fact that four of the ten most event-heavy weather disasters occurred in Europe.
The study also emphasises that the actual death toll is likely higher, as only officially reported cases were taken into account. The experts warn of an increase and intensification of extreme weather events in the future and are calling for greater efforts in climate protection and flood protection, better early warning systems, flood barriers, urban greening and river restoration.
In the summer of 2003, a devastating heatwave in Europe led to more than 70,000 deaths. This was a troubling demonstration that climate change is no abstract and distant future threat, but a reality that is claiming lives here and now. A year later, Stott et al., 2004 showed that the heatwave had indeed been made hotter and more likely by human-caused climate change, primarily through the burning of coal, oil and gas.
In the years that followed, extremely deadly weather events continued to occur around the world. For example, tropical Cyclone Nargis in 2008 alone claimed over 100,000 lives in Myanmar and devastated entire parts of the country.
In response to these developments, the World Weather Attribution (WWA) Initiative was founded in 2014 to provide scientific evidence as to whether and to what extent climate change played a role in the immediate aftermath of catastrophic events. Over the past ten years, WWA has developed protocols that allow for rapid assessment of various types of extreme weather events around the world. The group monitors extreme events globally and uses established criteria to decide which events to investigate. For each study, WWA scientists collaborate with local experts and/or national meteorological agencies. They then use weather observations, climate models and expert literature to analyse how climate change influenced the event and what local factors turned a weather event into a humanitarian disaster.
Over the ten years since the devastating heatwave of 2003, a wealth of information has been gathered and analysed on how climate change fuels extreme weather events and what vulnerabilities and exposure factors turn these hazards into disasters.
The events include three tropical cyclones in the Indo-Pacific (Sidr, Nargis and Haiyan), four heatwaves in Europe, two heavy rainfall events (one in India and one in the Mediterranean region) and a drought in the Horn of Africa. Together, these events caused over 570,000 deaths, and the fingerprints of climate change can be found in all of them. It is the vulnerability and exposure of populations that turn meteorological hazards into humanitarian disasters.
Download the study: 10 years of rapidly disentangling drivers of extreme weather disasters (81 pages, 2.9 MB)
