The goal of keeping global warming to below two degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels is likely to be more difficult to achieve than previously thought. A system has now been developed at the University of Graz that improves the monitoring of climate targets – according to these calculations, the 1.5-degree threshold will be reached sooner than previously estimated.

Even the last IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) world climate report had already predicted that the 1.5-degree threshold would be reached between 2030 and 2035. The Wegener Center and the Institute of Physics at the University of Graz projected a stronger increase in global near-surface air temperatures using expanded data sources. "Our new calculations show that we will exceed this threshold as early as 2028 – with a margin of plus/minus two years," said Graz climate researcher Gottfried Kirchengast on Monday in a statement to APA.

"The reference dataset we've developed shows the global temperature rise with previously unattainable reliability, and therefore allows us for the first time to propose an evaluation scale for assessing compliance with or deviation from the Paris climate targets," emphasised the head of Climate Change Indicators research and development (GCCI)…

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