Following the disappointing results from Baku, we asked three experts from Scientists for Future for their assessments: Renate Christ (long-standing Head of the Secretariat of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC), Daniel Huppmann, Senior Research Scholar at IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) in Laxenburg, and Karl Steininger, Professor of Climate Economics at the Wegener Center at the University of Graz.

Renate Christ notes that the new NDCs (Nationally Determined Contributions) to be presented at COP30 in Brazil are likely the last opportunity to even come close to keeping within the 1.5°C limit: "The UNFCCC Synthesis Report on the implementation of current NDCs shows that these are wholly inadequate. Even if all NDCs were implemented, global emissions in 2030 would be only 2.6% below 2019 levels. This year's UNEP Emissions Gap Report also makes for striking reading with its clear statements…

According to Daniel Huppmann, expectations for this year's climate conference were very low from the outset. He notes: "In Azerbaijan, however, negotiators were unable to move beyond the bare minimum compromise. The 300 billion dollars in annual support for those countries most severely affected by the impacts of global heating is, on paper, a step forward. But this commitment only takes effect from 2035 and falls far short of the investment and adaptation costs that would be needed for rapid emissions reductions and protecting populations…

"COP29 once again showed: due to the requirement for unanimity, the UN format is very cumbersome, decisions are extremely difficult to reach, there is manoeuvring (as was the case this time with both key outcomes: emissions trading and climate finance), or things get postponed. On the other hand, the COP remains the only place where many of the affected states — small island states, states from the Caribbean or Africa — have a voice. We will fundamentally continue to need COPs; they have an impact even in their imperfection: when negotiations began in 1995, global warming of over 4 degrees was anticipated — now we're at 2.7 degrees. If you add in the pledged commitments, it's 2 degrees." says Karl Steininger, Professor of Climate Economics at the Wegener Center at the University of Graz…

Read more about the topic at at.scientists4future.org