CCCA Press Release from 28 February 2018:

A strong high-pressure system centred over Scandinavia is currently transporting very cold air masses from the north-east along its south-eastern edge, reaching far into southern Europe. These arctic air masses are the cause of the sub-zero temperatures that have prevailed in Austria over the past few days.

However, even this recurring phenomenon has changed over time, explains Assoz. Prof. Dr. Douglas Maraun from the Wegener Center at the University of Graz: "There are periods when these events occur more frequently and others when they are less common. Overall, one can see that even these extreme cold spells are becoming less and less cold."

More mild winters to be expected

Such events occur in the Austrian lowlands every seven to ten years; the last comparable massive cold snap in the February to March period was recorded at the end of February 2011. A <link https: www.google.at>study by ZAMG was able to demonstrate a statistically highly significant long-term increase in winter temperatures in the high mountain areas of the Eastern Alps north of the main Alpine ridge. A reliable forecast of what the next five or ten winters will look like is, however, not something that can be responsibly provided: "A particular feature of high-alpine winter temperatures is that they exhibit an especially high degree of natural variability from year to year and across decades. Nevertheless, based on our current understanding of the mechanisms of climate change, it can be assumed with very high probability that the long-term warming trend demonstrated in the past will continue into the future, and that the risk of experiencing unusually mild winters will increase from year to year," says Dr. Marc Olefs, Head of ZAMG climate research.

According to ZAMG data, this year's winter was shaped by three very different months — December was too warm in the lowlands and normally cold with an exceptionally high snowfall on the mountains, January was the third warmest overall in recorded history, and February was cold and drier, with the current cold spell still ongoing and a lowest recorded temperature below 1,000 metres above sea level of -24.3°C in Zeltweg in Styria (26.02.18).

Tourism researchers warn against drawing false conclusions from the cold temperatures of recent days

Robert Steiger from the University of Innsbruck emphasises the economic necessity of adapting to higher winter temperatures: "Climate change is not the end of winter sports, but climate change is driving up snowmaking costs. In addition, some guests stay away when there are green fields, despite good conditions on snow-covered slopes. It is therefore an economic necessity to adapt to the changed conditions in order to remain competitive in an increasingly crowded market. Possible solutions range from maintaining the skiing product in favourable locations to scaling back or even abandoning winter operations whilst simultaneously strengthening snow-independent alternatives."

One swallow doesn't make a summer — and one cold week in winter doesn't make an ice age

"The current cold spell across large parts of Europe changes absolutely nothing about the fundamental problem of human-caused global warming," says the Chair of the Climate Change Centre Austria (CCCA), Dr. Gerhard Wotawa. "Temperatures in our latitudes will continue to rise over the coming decades, and the population, the economy, and policymakers need to prepare and adapt to this situation. To avoid the most negative consequences of global warming, rapid and decisive measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are needed worldwide, including in Austria. The necessary transformation of the economy requires swift investment and offers substantial opportunities for a high-technology country like Austria."

Further reading:

• <link http: www.zamg.ac.at cms de klima news winter-2017-2018-trueb-und-im-grossteil-des-berglands-viel-schnee external-link-new-window internal link in current>ZAMG winter review (27.02.18)
• <link http: bit.ly external-link-new-window internal link in current>ZAMG: An analysis of the long-term development of high-alpine winter temperatures in the Eastern Alps north of the main Alpine ridge (October 2017)