The long-term 1.5-degree target is likely to be exceeded before 2030, and the 1.7-degree limit without countermeasures before 2035, according to the latest calculations. 

The rise in global warming is accelerating ever more rapidly. According to current forecasts from the Wegener Center at the University of Graz, an increase of 1.48 degrees above pre-industrial levels will already be reached in 2025. But the long-term temperature rise over the past 20 years is also already very close to the 1.5-degree threshold of the Paris Agreement, the researchers announced on Monday. Earlier forecasts from the IPCC had still predicted that the 1.5-degree target would not be exceeded until between 2030 and 2035.

Parts of Europe and the world have been battling extreme heat this year, with 30 heat days recorded in Austria. The researchers at the Graz Wegener Center can now, for the first time, provide a forecast for the full year before autumn – and it makes for worrying reading. According to the latest calculations by Gottfried Kirchengast and Moritz Pichler, there is a 90 per cent probability that 2025 will see an increase of 1.48 degrees Celsius (plus/minus 0.09 degrees Celsius) compared to pre-industrial levels. "Our calculations include observational data up to August and seasonal forecasts from September onwards," explained Pichler.

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