"What will climate change cost us in Austria if we don't adapt?"
... is the core question of the COIN (COst of INaction) project, which is funded by the Climate and Energy Fund as part of the Austrian Climate Research Program (ACRP).
The answer to this question matters for political decision-makers as well as for businesses and private households, since it's ultimately about weighing up the right measures to keep the costs of climate change as low as possible.
To that end, a consortium of 12 Austrian research institutions is looking at the range of additional costs as well as opportunities arising from climate change (without planned adaptation) over the coming decades and through to the year 2100. The focus of the potential impacts of climate change covers 13 sectors and areas of activity within the Austrian economy and society:
- Agriculture (see also Fact Sheet #2)
- Forestry (see also Fact Sheet #11)
- Health (see also Fact Sheet #6)
- Ecosystem services & biodiversity
- Water supply (see also Fact Sheet #7)
- Electricity (see also Fact Sheet #10)
- Construction and housing
- Heating and cooling (see also Fact Sheet #10)
- Transport and mobility (see also Fact Sheet #3)
- Production and trade (see also Fact Sheet #5)
- Disaster management (see also Fact Sheet #9)
- Urban areas (see also Fact Sheet #8)
- Tourism (see also Fact Sheet #4)
In order to quantify these costs and benefits, COIN developed economic methods for assessing the impacts of climate change on the one hand, and identified the climatic conditions that drive costs in each of the respective sectors on the other.
For instance, more frequent heatwaves — like the one in 2003 — and their effects on human health, particularly for elderly and sick people, could lead to increased costs for the healthcare and disaster management system in the future.
To get a comprehensive overview of the potential costs, the 12 sectors aren't just looked at in isolation. When it comes to road damage caused by mudslides, for example, the direct costs of repairs are considered alongside the disruption to passenger and freight transport, which in turn can lead to losses in industrial production.
Losses in agricultural or forestry production likewise lead to setbacks in downstream processing industries. These kinds of interdependencies and knock-on effects are also captured in COIN, so as to be able to estimate the total of all costs considered — both direct and indirect.
All findings from COIN will be published for a scientific audience in a peer-reviewed book with Springer Verlag. In addition, COIN will make summaries of the results available in the form of fact sheets for decision-makers as well as for the interested public.
Following the successful completion of the project, the COIN results were presented by Minister Rupprechter at a press conference on 15 January 2015. A stakeholder workshop will also take place on 22 January 2015, where the findings will be discussed.
For more information, visit https://coin.ccca.ac.at/
You can download the current COIN study "Climate policy in Austria: the COVID-19 crisis as an opportunity for innovation and the costs of inaction" at: https://www.klimafonds.gv.at/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/COIN_2020.pdf